Deliverables Release Curve

The purpose of this research is to propose a methodology for the improvement of the estimate of the end of one Project. This methodology allows to design curves that define the control limits among which the S–Curve can be found. If these limits are surpassed, this would mean a distortion in the registry of the progress measured by the S–Curve, and therefore a distortion in the Project End Forecast.
This research takes a different path from the traditional progress measurement methodology based on man-hours (m-h). On the contrary, this research analyzes the Project based on deliverables quantification and totally leaves out the m-h variable, therefore, the methods derived there from, such as the Earned Value. However, the results obtained are control limits applicable both to the S–curve and to related estimates.
These limits are actually a way of looking at what we will call Deliverables Release Curve, DRC.
Different to the S–Curve that measures all the contributory and productive activities related to construction, in other cases it identifies groups of deliverables, the DRC relates Project deliverables – in a level which is different to the typical one – with productive activities related to the conclusion of the process or sub process; this is also known as validation. The way in which we can identify and quantify this validation is through the tests that “release” the deliverables through the Project development. That is, this release is not part of the final stage of the Project, as the traditional scheme proposes but it carried out in a constant manner until the end of the Project.
The DRC and its derived curves (control limits) do not measure progress and, therefore, can not replace the S-Curve, on the contrary, they supply the balance of deliverables release, and eventually, the condition of the Project End. They can be used, as it will be shown, as tools for the auditing of the measurements that build up the S -Curve.
One of the advantages of this methodology is that it allows determining the start of the S-Curve distortion. An “up” distortion which generates what we sometimes call the “90% syndrome”. That is, before reaching 90% the progress of the S – curve follows a series of percentage units larger that 1%, thus, we can have progresses of 5%, 4%, 3%, 4%, 3%, etc. After 90% and inside the “syndrome” the percentage series that determine the progress is smaller to one percentage unit and it starts decreasing, that is 0.8%, 0.75%, 0.7%, 0.5%, etc. The addition of the percentage units that are reported in the syndrome zone, finally make the Project reach 100%. Nevertheless, during this long period, the contractual Project closeout is exceeded, fixed costs increased and contractual penalties are incurred in. In this level the S–Curve is no longer useful to infer the date of Project End given the cumulative effect that distortion causes on it.
In the methodology presented we determine the origin of this syndrome, its date and percentile origin. It is not necessary to start with the series of percentage progress below 1% to think that such syndrome has begun, but it could start earlier.
The curves that we will present use the variables that, after their individual analysis, provide information of Project development; unfortunately this information is usually unnoticed. All the same, the methodology to obtain and use the variables allows “Real-Time” control of the values of the above mentioned curve limits. This characteristic is another advantage for the traditional Project Control, which generally is analyzed on a weekly basis regarding progress control and on a monthly basis regarding cost control. This fact limits the corrective and preventive actions to the traditional Project Control processing time.
Thus, we present the Deliverables Release Curve as a complement of the S-Curve for the estimate of the Project End. The DRC is therefore a new practical application tool for the analysis of Projects regarding the release of deliverables in Construction Projects.
 

  

Deliverable Release Cruve is licensed under a Creative Commons Reconocimiento-No comercial-Sin obras derivadas 3.0 Estados Unidos License.

Deliverable Release Cruve is licensed under a Creative Commons Reconocimiento-No comercial-Sin obras derivadas 2.5 Perú License.

i-phone black out

Check this link before buying an i-phone. A smart phone, but sometimes it gets “sick” and requires tricks, as many PC’s need. It’s up to you, I don’t regret to buy my i-phone, it’s the cost of anyone willing to explore business connection.

http://discussions.apple.com/search.jspa?objID=c201&search=Go&q=black+out

Nothing is true, only debts

In the stock market, nothing is real, neither your gains nor your losses, but your debts

To sell or not to sell, that is the question – WSt’s mess

En la bolsa, si dudas en vender piensa que es mejor contar todo lo que se dejo de ganar, que contar todo lo que se llego a perder

DIAD

El DIAD (DELIVERY INFORMATION ACQUISITION DEVICE) es el equipo que desarrollara UPS a inicios de los años 90 (antes del Blackberry y PDAs) para el tracking on-line de sus entregas. En la actualidad el equipo brinda interconexión, servicio GPS, estado del tránsito, status de los paquetes, entre otros servicios. Los datos que se ingresan se publican de forma sincronizada en la web, tal que se puede rastrear el trayecto de la entrega en todo momento. Una entrega exitosa, una venta exitosa, la unidad del ciclo de generación de valor cerrada.

En los Proyectos de Construcción, podemos concebir un escenario similar. Imaginemos al nuevo “Planner” o “QAQC Eng” llamándolo Release Control Engineer, el/ella hace sus inspecciones diarias verificando y salvaguardando el término real del trabajo (liberación) e ingresando el status vía una especie de DIAD, permitiendo el tracking on-line para la toma de decisiones del gerente de proyecto u unidad. Por que esperar al fin de mes para recibir el informe de Obra sobre decisiones que deben tomarse en menos de una semana, y no un mes?, cuando las decisiones las podemos tomar a la hora?.

Este es solo un engranaje de un sistema superior, podemos hablar no solo del control de la liberación, sino del control de adicionales, entre otros controles relevantes que a la larga definirían benchmarks que denotarán la performance de la organización en diferentes aspectos de sus procesos operativos o de gestión. Así para el caso de la gestión del cambio, una Organización dados benchmarks obtenidos en el pasado, podría establecer por ejemplo que solo se acepte que un 60% del monto presentado como adicionales no sea reconocido, fijando así como un límite superior, pasado dicho monto se detiene la ejecución de los trabajos adicionales, o se cesa el contrato en un peor escenario.

No hay que esperar al fin de mes para saber que superamos dicho BM, o peor el fin de Obra para ver si nos pueden reconocer algo, esto se puede saber en un menor tiempo. Sin embargo, no hay tampoco que esperar al DIAD – que sirve como norte empero – para lograr tal nivel de sincronización en las Organizaciones orientadas a la construcción, hoy con la tecnología Blackberry o 3G se puede ir mas allá de la mera moda de la “conexión”, se puede manejar información que otros no ven. Mediante herramientas colaborativas en línea la Organización puede obtener en tiempo real el control de la liberación de sus Obras, viendo más allá de lo que las empresas pueden ver al leer un reporte de avance.

El futuro es incierto, pero se puede estar preparado para este.

Decisions

No todo lo que pienses sea aquello que sientas, ni todo lo que sientas aquello que pienses

Errores

Cualquiera puede cometer errores, pero no cualquiera puede plantear soluciones y ejecutarlas

Información

No gana el que tiene más información, sino el que sabe usarla – en el momento preciso

Problemas

El pecado no es tener problemas, sino el no comunicarlos para poder resolverlos

KPI’s

Indicador que no genera acción es una distracción

Indicator lacking action is not a KPI, but a distraction